Obesity is contagious, or is it? A sober second look at obesity and social networks.
Right off the top let me say I’m not well versed enough in statistics to know who’s rightOn one side of the fence are the findings of Christakis and Fowler, famously published in the New England Journal of Medicine that posited obesity is socially contagious Non-statistically, their paper didn’t sit right with me, but as far as stats go, I’m no mavenOn the other side of the fence is a new paper published by Russel Lyons who posits that Christakis’ and Fowler’s work is a great example of statistical illiteracy, and that the conclusion drawn from their data, that obesity is socially contagious, is severely flawed and can’t be madeLyons’ paper, in a nutshell, gives statistical meat to my gut’s firm belief – that shared environments and self-selection may well be explanatory for the clustering of obesity in social networks That folks whose lifestyles may be more conducive to obesity, may well gravitate towards one another, and/or that people living in geographically/socially similar environments, environments that may contribute to the risk of obesity, together share increased risks and outcomesStatistical arguments aside frankly they’re way over my head and I couldn’t begin to venture a guess who’s right and who’s wrong, what was most fascinating to me was Lyons’ discussion of his paper’s publication If Lyons’ hypothesis is correct, his paper’s a big deal It refutes one of the most widely publicized studies of the decade, one that’s translated itself into millions of dollars of grants, countless news stories, and even a book that’s been published in 20 different languages So what happened when he tried to publish it?
